Iran votes in presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Iran on 18 June 2021. Ebrahim Raisi won with 62 percent of the votes (17.8 million out of 28.6 million votes). It was the thirteenth presidential election in Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Under the 1979 constitution, Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent president, was ineligible to run for re-election as he was limited to two consecutive terms or eight years in office. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) reported 42 cases of journalists being summoned or threatened for writing about candidates. There were calls to boycott the election, and the chief of the police threatened against telling people to not vote. At 48%, the election had the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. More than 4 million votes were void.

The President of Iran is elected for a four-year term by universal adult suffrage with a minimum voting age of 18. The presidential term is renewable once in a consecutive manner. It is the country’s highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. “Under Iran’s political system, it is ultimately the Supreme Leader, not the president, who makes the final call on all major matters of state.” According to Islamic Republic of Iran’s constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election.

The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council. “We have not rejected any woman due to being a woman”, the spokeman of the Guardian Council said. He clarified that there is no obstacle for women’s registration in the elections.

Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote on the weekend. The winner is the candidate who receive a majority (50% plus one) votes. If no candidate receives enough votes another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday. Iranians who voted during the election receive a stamp that indicate so on their birth certificates. According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president. After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the to the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected President must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).

 

Iran plane crash : Iran says it “unintentionally” shot down

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 (PS752) was a scheduled international passenger flight from Tehran to Kiev operated by Ukraine International Airlines (UIA). On 8 January 2020, the Boeing 737-800 operating the route was shot down shortly after takeoff from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, which attributed it to human error. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later described the accident as an “unforgivable mistake”. All 176 passengers and crew were killed, making it the deadliest aviation disaster in Iran since the 2003 Iran Ilyushin Il-76 crash. The incident was the first fatal aviation incident for Ukraine International Airlines since the start of its operations in 1992.

Initially, Iranian aviation authorities denied the plane was struck, saying there was a technical error with the plane. Ukrainian authorities, after initially deferring to Iran’s explanation, said a shootdown of the flight was one of their main working theories. American, Canadian and British officials stated that they believed the aircraft had been shot down by a Russian-made Tor M1 surface-to-air missile launched by Iran. Three days later, on 11 January, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that they had shot down the aircraft after erroneously identifying it as a US cruise missile.

The incident came during a period of increased tensions between the United States and Iran, five days after a drone strike that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani and hours after retaliatory ballistic missile attacks by Iran on US forces in Iraq. It was preceded by an order from the US Federal Aviation Administration that all American civilian aircraft avoid Iranian airspace and was followed by similar orders by several other nations and airlines. The crash occurred about five hours after Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on US positions in Iraq for the killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani. Iran was on the highest state of defensive alert and according to Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Amir Ali Hajizadeh, was “totally prepared for a full-fledged war”.

The flight was operated by Ukraine International Airlines, the flag carrier and the largest airline of Ukraine, on a scheduled flight from the Iranian capital Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport to Boryspil International Airport in the Ukrainian capital Kiev. Emergency officials confirmed that the aircraft was carrying 176 people on board, including nine crew members. Fifteen of the passengers were children. Flight 752 was scheduled to take off at 05:15 local time (UTC+3:30), but was delayed. It departed Stand 116 and took off from Runway 29R at 06:12:47 local time and was expected to land in Kiev at 08:00 local time (UTC+2:00). The final ADS-B data received was at 06:14:45, less than two minutes after departure. On 8 January, Iran’s Road and Transportation Ministry released a statement that the aircraft burst into flames after a fire started in one of its engines, causing the pilot to lose control and crash into the ground. The airline opined that pilot error was impossible to be cited as the cause of the crash as the pilots had exclusively been trained for the Tehran flights for years, noting that Tehran Airport was “not a simple airport”.

Iranian and Ukrainian government sources initially blamed mechanical issues aboard the aircraft for its crash However, the Ukrainian government later retracted its statement and said that anything was possible, refusing to rule out that the aircraft was hit by a missile. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that there should not be any speculation about the cause of the crash. On 9 January 2020, United States intelligence and defense officials said that they believe the aircraft had been shot down by an Iranian Tor missile, based on evidence from reconnaissance satellite imagery and radar data.  Ukrainian authorities stated that a shootdown was one of the “main working theories”, while Iranian authorities denied this, stating that allegations of a missile hit were “psychological warfare”.  British defense officials agreed with the American assessment of a shootdown.[69] Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said evidence from multiple sources, including Canadian intelligence, suggest the aircraft was shot down by an Iranian missile.

US Army paratroopers prepare for deployment to Middle East

U.S. Army paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division depart for the Middle East from Fort Bragg, North Carolina. The United States will send approximately 750 soldiers to the Middle East immediately, Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed in a written statement Tuesday, after attacks broke out in Baghdad among hundreds of protesters in response to airstrikes in Iraq and Syria conducted by US forces on Sunday. “At the direction of the Commander in Chief, I have authorized the deployment of an infantry battalion from the Immediate Response Force of the 82nd Airborne Division (in Fort Bragg, North Carolina) to the U.S. Central Command area of operations in response to recent events in Iraq,” Esper said, adding that additional forces “are prepared to deploy over the next several days.”

“This deployment is an appropriate and precautionary action taken in response to increased threat levels against U.S. personnel and facilities, such as we witnessed in Baghdad today. The United States will protect our people and interests anywhere they are found around the world,” Esper added. In a statement earlier Tuesday, Esper said the US would deploy “additional forces to support our personnel at the Embassy” and that officials had “taken appropriate force protection actions to ensure the safety of American citizens, military personnel and diplomats” serving in Iraq. “As in all countries, we rely on host nation forces to assist in the protection of our personnel in country, and we call on the Government of Iraq to fulfill its international responsibilities to do so,” Esper said.

The US had sent two Apache helicopters to fly over the embassy in a show of force, a US official told CNN. The US also earlier deployed about 100 US Marines from a crisis response task force based in Kuwait to bolster security at the embassy. Those Marines flew into the embassy compound aboard MV-22 Osprey aircraft. A defense official told CNN that it was unlikely that the additional soldiers coming from the 82nd Airborne will be sent to Iraq, but will instead be sent to a nearby country or countries in the region so they are positioned to respond quickly if the situation deteriorates. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News that there are currently no plans to evacuate the embassy or pull out US troops.

Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani killed in U.S. air strike

On 3 January 2020, amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the U.S. launched a drone strike against a convoy traveling near Baghdad International Airport that was carrying several passengers, including Iranian Major General and IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The attack came after the U.S withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and after the 2019-2020 Persian Gulf crisis. In the week before the attack, an Iraqi airbase was attacked, killing a U.S. contractor. Days later, the U.S. embassy in Iraq was vandalized during protests. The U.S. blamed Iran for these incidents.

 The attack sharply escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Iranian leaders vowed to take revenge on the U.S. and U.S. officials said that they would preemptively attack any Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Iraw that they perceived as a threat. Republicans in the U.S. largely supported the attacks, as did Israeli prime minster Benjamin Netanyahu. Democrats in the U.S. acknowledged Soleimani’s culpability in the killing of Americans, but questioned the wisdom of such a provocative attack that would raise tensions in the Middle East. Syrian and Russian officials condemned the attack and representatives from China, India, Pakistan, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom urged restraint and diplomacy.

The United States intervened in Iraq in 2014 as a part of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the United States–led mission to degrade and combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terror organization, and have been training and operating alongside Iraqi forces as a part of the anti-ISIL coalition. ISIL was largely beaten back from Iraq in 2017 during the Iraqi Civil War, with the help of primarily Iran-backed Shia militias—Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), reporting to the Iraqi prime minister since 2016—and the United States-backed Iraqi Armed Forces. Tensions rose between Iran and the United States in 2018 when United States President, Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions against Iran, which “led to a sharp downturn in Iran’s economy”. In the ensuing 2019–2020 Persian Gulf crisis, attacks on several oil tankers and on Saudi oil fields were considered by Western powers to be among Iran’s responses to the sanctions, although Iran denied responsibility.

On 27 December 2019, the K-1 Air Base in Kirkuk province, Iraq—one of many Iraqi military bases that host Operation Inherent Resolve coalition personnel—was attacked by more than 30 rockets, killing a United States civilian contractor and injuring four United States service members and two Iraqi security forces personnel. The United States blamed the Iranian-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah militia for the attack. A senior United States official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said there had been a campaign of 11 attacks on Iraqi bases hosting OIR personnel in the two months before 27 December incident, many of which the United States attributed to Kata’ib Hezbollah. On 29 December 2019, US airstrikes on Kata’ib Hezbollah’s headquarters killed 25 militia members.

 On 31 December 2019, after a funeral was held for the Kata’ib Hezbollah militiamen that were killed by the prior American airstrikes, an angry mob of dozens of Iraqi Shiite militiamen and their supporters marched through the perimeters of Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone and surrounded the United States embassy compound. According to the Associated Press, the Iraqi Security Forces did not attempt to stop the mob and permitted them to pass a security checkpoint. Dozens of the demonstrators then smashed through a main door of the checkpoint, set fire to the reception area, raised Popular Mobilization Units militia flags, left anti-American posters, and sprayed anti-American graffiti. United States president Donald Trump accused Iran of orchestrating the attack on the embassy and added that they would be held “fully responsible”. Iran’s foreign ministry denied they were behind the protests at the U.S. embassy and warned against any retaliation. Supreme leader of Iran Ali Khameini tweeted “If Iran wants to fight a country, it will strike directly.” Eric Trump made a suggestive tweet foreshadowing 3 January attacks, then deleted it afterward.

Iranian Major General and IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Units militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed in a US airstrike on 3 January 2020 while traveling in a convoy on an access road near Baghdad International Airport. Several missiles fired from a drone struck the convoy and at least seven people are thought to have died. According to Ayatollah Ali Sistani’s office, among them were several commanders who defeated Islamic State terrorists. The United States Department of Defense issued a statement that said the American strike was carried out “at the direction of the president” and was meant to deter future attacks. He asserted that Soleimani had been planning further attacks on American diplomats and military personnel and had approved the attacks on the American embassy in Baghdad. Soleimani’s body was identified using a ring he wore on his finger. DNA results regarding the identification of the victims is still pending, however a senior Pentagon official stated that there was “high probability” that Soleimani is identified. PMU spokesman Ahmed al-Assadi confirmed both of their deaths to Reuters.

Soleimani’s death has raised tensions between the United States and Iran. A spokesman for the Iranian government said the country’s top security body would hold an extraordinary meeting shortly to discuss the “criminal act of attack”. Global oil prices soared more than four percent in the wake of the strike, pushing oil stocks (of BP and Royal Dutch Shell) on the London stock exchange higher.  U.S. equity futures and Asian stocks reversed their gains for the day and investors moved towards “safe haven” assets such as gold, treasury bonds, and the Japanese Yen. In the wake of the attack, World War III became a trending topic on Twitter,  as did Franz Ferdinand. After the attack, on the night of 2 January 2020 (US time), several planes with U.S. service members took off from bases in the eastern United States.  According to online plane tracking software, they traveled due east, with U.S. Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers concurrently taking off from RAF Mildenhall in the UK.  The US embassy in Baghdad urged Americans to leave Iraq immediately “via airline while possible, and failing that, to other countries via land.” The French embassy in Tehran sent a Twitter message urging its citizens to stay away from public gatherings and to behave with prudence and discretion and abstain from taking pictures in public spaces.

Courtesy : Wikipedia

Who was Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general killed in US airstrike?

Qasem Soleimani was an Iranian major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and from 1998 until his death, commander of its Quds Force, a division primarily responsible for extraterritorial military and clandestine operations. Soleimani began his military career in the beginning of the Iran–Iraq War of the 1980s, during which he commanded the 41st Division. He was later involved in extraterritorial operations, providing military assistance to anti-Saddam Shia and Kurdish groups in Iraq, and later Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. In 2012, Soleimani helped bolster the Syrian government, a key Iranian ally, during the Syrian Civil War, particularly in its operations against ISIS and its offshoots. Soleimani also assisted in the command of combined Iraqi government and Shia militia forces that advanced against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in 2014–2015. Soleimani was killed in a targeted U.S. airstrike on 3 January 2020 in Baghdad, Iraq. Also killed were Popular Mobilization Forces members. His rank was promoted to lieutenant general posthumously. Soleimani was suceeded by Esmail Ghaani as commander of the Quds force.

Early Life

Soleimani was born on 11 March 1957 in the village of Qanat-e Malek, Kerman Province, to an impoverished peasant family. In his youth, he moved to the city of Kerman and worked as a construction worker to help repay a debt his father owed. In 1975, he began working as a contractor for the Kerman Water Organization When not at work, he spent his time lifting weights in local gyms and attending the sermons of a traveling preacher, Hojjat Kamyab, a protege of Ayatollah Khomeini.

Military Career

On 22 September 1980, when Saddam Hussein launched an invasion of Iran, setting off the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), Soleimani joined the battlefield serving as the leader of a military company, consisting of men from Kerman whom he personally assembled and trained. He quickly earned a reputation for bravery, and rose through the ranks because of his role in the successful operations in retaking the lands Iraq had occupied, eventually becoming the commander of the 41st Sarallah Division while still in his 20s, participating in most major operations. He was mostly stationed at the southern front. He was seriously injured in Operation Tariq-ol-Qods. In a 1990 interview, he mentioned Operation Fath-ol-Mobin as “the best” operation he participated in and “very memorable”, due to its difficulties yet positive outcome. He was also engaged in leading and organizing irregular warfare missions deep inside Iraq carried out by the Ramadan Headquarters. It was at this point that Suleimani established relations with Kurdish Iraqi leaders and the Shia Badr Organization, both of which were opposed to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

Command of Quds Force

The exact date of his appointment as commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force is not clear, but Ali Alfoneh cites it as between 10 September 1997 and 21 March 1998. He was considered one of the possible successors to the post of commander of the IRGC, when General Yahya Rahim Safavi left this post in 2007. In 2008, he led a group of Iranian investigators looking into the death of Imad Mughniyah. Soleimani helped arrange a ceasefire between the Iraqi Army and Mahdi Army in March 2008. Following the September 11 attacks in 2001, Ryan Crocker, a senior State Department official in the United States, flew to Geneva to meet with Iranian diplomats who were under the direction of Soleimani with the purpose of collaborating to destroy the Taliban, which had targeted Shia Afghanis. This collaboration was instrumental in defining the targets of bombing operations in Afghanistan and in capturing key Al-Qaeda operatives, but abruptly ended in January 2002, when President George W. Bush named Iran as part of the “Axis of evil” in his State of the Union address.

Death

Soleimani was killed on 3 January 2020, after missiles shot from American drones targeted his convoy near Baghdad International Airport. He had just left his plane, which arrived in Iraq from Lebanon or Syria. His body was identified using a ring he wore on his finger, with DNA confirmation still pending. Also killed were four other Popular Mobilization Forces members, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi-Iranian military commander who headed the PMF. The airstrike followed attacks on the American embassy in Baghdad by supporters of an Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militia and the 2019 K-1 Air Base attack. The United States Department of Defense issued a statement that said the U.S. strike was carried out “at the direction of the President” and asserted that Soleimani had been planning further attacks on American diplomats and military personnel and had approved the attacks on the American embassy in Baghdad in response to U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria on 29 December 2019 and was meant to deter future attacks.

Courtesy : Wikipedia

Oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman

Attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman left one ablaze and both adrift, driving oil prices up over worries about Middle East supplies. Two oil tankers were hit in suspected attacks in the Gulf of Oman and the crews have been evacuated, shipping firms and industry sources said on Thursday, a month after a similar incident in which four tankers in the region were struck. One of the tankers, the Front Altair, carrying a cargo of petrochemical feedstock, was ablaze in waters between Gulf Arab states and Iran. Iran’s state news agency said it had sunk, although the Norwegian owner had said it was afloat and its crew were safe. The other tanker was adrift without any crew. The Bahrain-based United States Navy Fifth Fleet said it was assisting the tankers after receiving distress calls. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, part of Britain’s Royal Navy, said it was investigating with its partners. Details of the incident were not immediately clear, but one operator said it suspected its ship had been hit by a torpedo. Another shipping firm said its vessel was on fire in the Gulf of Oman.

Oil prices surged by 4per cent after the report that has stoked tensions in the region that have already been heightened by attacks last month on Gulf oil assets amid a dispute between Iran and the US over Tehran’s nuclear programme. The Gulf of Oman lies at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, a major strategic waterway through which a fifth of global oil consumption passes from Middle East producers. There was no immediate confirmation from authorities in Oman or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in whose territorial waters four tankers were hit last month. An investigation said limpet mines were used. The US and Saudi officials blamed Iran for the May attack, a charge Tehran has denied.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE said the attacks on oil assets in the Gulf posed a risk to global oil supplies and regional security. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemned the attacks on the two oil tankers, warning that the world cannot afford “a major confrontation in the Gulf region.” “I strongly condemn any attack against civilian vessels. Facts must be established and responsibilities clarified,” he told a meeting of the UN Security Council on cooperation between the United Nations and the League of Arab States.

Inside Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

President Trump brands Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization, an unprecedented step that raises the specter of retaliation from Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a branch of Iran’s Armed Forces founded after 1979 Revolution on 22 April 1979[2] by order of Ayatollah Khomeini.  Whereas the regular military (or Artesh) defends Iran’s borders and maintains internal order, according to the Iranian constitution, the Revolutionary Guard (pasdaran) is intended to protect the country’s Islamic Republic system. The Revolutionary Guards state that their role in protecting the Islamic system is preventing foreign interference as well as coups by the military or “deviant movements”.

The Revolutionary Guards have roughly 125,000 military personnel including ground, aerospace and naval forces. Its naval forces are now the primary forces tasked with operational control of the Persian Gulf. It also controls the paramilitary Basij militia which has about 90,000 active personnel. Its media arm is Sepah News. Since its origin as an ideologically driven militia, the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution has taken a greater role in nearly every aspect of Iranian society. Its expanded social, political, military and economic role under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration—especially during the 2009 presidential election and post-election suppression of protest—has led many Western analysts to argue that its political power has surpassed even that of the Shia clerical system.

The force’s main role is in national security. It is responsible for internal and border security, law enforcement, and also Iran’s missile forces. IRGC operations are geared towards asymmetric warfare and less traditional duties. These include the control of smuggling, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and resistance operations. The IRGC is intended to complement the more traditional role of the regular Iranian military, with the two forces operating separately and focusing on different operational roles. The IRGC is a combined arms force with its own ground forces, navy, air force, intelligence, and special forces. It also controls the Basij militia. The Basij is a volunteer-based force, with 90,000 regular soldiers and 300,000 reservists. The IRGC is officially recognized as a component of the Iranian military under Article 150 of the Iranian Constitution. It is separate from, and parallel to, the other arm of Iran’s military, which is called Artesh (another Persian word for army). Especially in the waters of the Persian Gulf, the IRGC is expected to assume control of any Iranian response to attacks on its nuclear facilities.

The IRGC was formed on 5 May 1979 following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in an effort to consolidate several paramilitary forces into a single force loyal to the new government and to function as a counter to the influence and power of the regular military, initially seen as a potential source of opposition because of its traditional loyalty to the Shah. From the beginning of the new Islamic government, the Pasdaran (Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Islami) functioned as a corps of the faithful. The Constitution of the Islamic Republic entrusted the defense of Iran’s territorial integrity and political independence to the regular military (artesh), while it gave the Pasdaran the responsibility of preserving the Revolution itself.

Days after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s return to Tehran on 1 February 1979, the Bazargan interim administration established the Pasdaran under a decree issued by Khomeini on 5 May. The Pasdaran was intended to protect the Revolution and to assist the ruling clerics in the day-to-day enforcement of the new government’s Islamic codes and morality. There were other, perhaps more important, reasons for establishing the Pasdaran. The Revolution needed to rely on a force of its own rather than borrowing the previous regime’s tainted units. As one of the first revolutionary institutions, the Pasdaran helped legitimize the Revolution and gave the new government an armed basis of support. Moreover, the establishment of the Pasdaran served notice to both the population and the regular armed forces that the Khomeini government was quickly developing its own enforcement body. Thus, the Pasdaran, along with its political counterpart, Crusade for Reconstruction, brought a new order to Iran. In time, the Pasdaran would rival the police and the judiciary in terms of its functions. It would even challenge the performance of the regular armed forces on the battlefield.

 Although the IRGC operated independently of the regular armed forces, it was often considered to be a military force in its own right due to its important role in Iranian defense. The IRGC consists of ground, naval, and aviation troops, which parallel the structure of the regular military. Unique to the Pasdaran, however, has been control of Iran’s strategic missile and rocket forces. Also contained under the umbrella of the more conventional Pasdaran, were the Basij Forces (Mobilization Resistance Force), a network of potentially up to a million active individuals who could be called upon in times of need. The Basij could be committed to assist in the defense of the country against internal or external threats, but by 2008 had also been deployed in mobilizing voters in elections and alleged tampering during such activities. Another element was the Quds Force, a special forces element tasked with unconventional warfare roles and known to be involved providing assistance and training to various militant organizations around the world.

In late July 2008 reports originating that the IRGC was in the process of dramatically changing its structure. In a shake-up, in September 2008 Iran’s Revolutionary Guards established 31 divisions and an autonomous missile command. The new structure changes the IRGC from a centralized to a decentralized force with 31 provincial corps, whose commanders wield extensive authority and power. According to the plan, each of Iran’s thirty provinces will have a provincial corps, except Tehran Province, which will have two.

The IISS Military Balance 2007 says the IRGC has 125,000+ personnel and controls the Basij on mobilisation. It estimates the IRGC Ground and Aerospace Forces are 100,000 strong and is ‘very lightly manned’ in peacetime. It estimates there are up to 20 infantry divisions, some independent brigades, and one airborne brigade. The IISS estimates the IRGC Naval Forces are 20,000 strong including 5,000 Marines in one brigade of three or four Marine Battalions., and are equipped with some coastal defence weapons (some HY-2/CSS-C-3 Seersucker SSM batteries and some artillery batteries) and 50 patrol boats. The IRGC air arm, says the IISS, controls Iran’s strategic missile force and has an estimated one brigade of Shahab-1/2 with 12–18 launchers, and a Shahab-3 unit. The IISS says of the Shahab-3 unit ‘estimated 1 battalion with estimated 6 single launchers each with estimated 4 Shahab-3 strategic IRBM.

 

In Idlib, Final Offensive in Syrian War May Come at Horrific Cost

On land, Syria’s government is mustering thousands of conscripts to bolster its depleted forces. At sea, a Russian naval flotilla is just offshore, ready to intervene with formidable firepower. In Idlib Province, millions of civilians are dreading what comes next. The warring sides in Syria’s long and merciless civil war are preparing for another brutal offensive, and this one may be the last. The looming assault on Idlib Province is the one the government in Damascus hopes will deliver the final military blow against the rebel fighters and their civilian supporters who rose up more than seven years ago demanding regime change. Where Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies see a chance to crush the remaining opposition, Western leaders warn of a humanitarian calamity in Idlib, where an estimated three million civilians live.

Many of the noncombatants now in Idlib fled there from other parts of Syria, escaping the brutality of the government forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Tens of thousands were bussed there as part of surrender deals with the government. The impending government offensive against what are believed to be about 30,000 rebel fighters is a “perfect storm coming up in front of our eyes,” said Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations special envoy to Syria. Turkey, too, is expressing grave concern about an attack, worried it will bear the brunt of the humanitarian and security fallout. The country has troops on the ground in Idlib, with the aim of separating Syrian and rebel forces, and its soldiers could be caught in the middle of an attack. Turkey also is already hosting more than three million refugees from the civil war, and with an economic crisis and growing resentment against those Syrians already in the country, it does not want any more.

Courtesy : New York Times

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Protests are mounting in Iraq. Why?

Protesters set fire to the main government building in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, amid growing unrest over poor basic services. Over the past week, protests and violence proliferated across Iraq’s southern provinces. In unprecedented scenes, buildings of provincial capitals were stormed, and the offices of political parties and militias were attacked and burned down. The political elites who have dominated the post-2003 order have legitimized their rule by claiming to represent and advance the interest of this previously marginalized constituency.

And yet, in recent elections, these provinces recorded some of the lowest turnout. That political disengagement has now transformed into a new and more radical means of contesting political power. As demonstrators attacked the offices of Iraq’s most powerful militias, which subject ordinary Iraqis to intimidation and extortion, there were reports of militia gunmen firing on protesters with live rounds.

Tribal fighting, and violent criminality, have also become a major source of grievance. While focus has been drawn to the war on Islamic State, cities and towns in the south have witnessed regular gun battles in the streets involving feuding tribes and criminal gangs, often resulting in innocent bystanders being killed or injured.

In June, I noted record levels of violence and protest activity across the south. There was almost one demonstration occurring every day. I also recorded 22 tribal fighting incidents. The underlying factors driving these events are often connected. A typical case occurred June 9, when at least one man was killed when tribal fighting broke out in a small town in the southern province of Dhi Qar. The cause of fighting, a dispute over an electricity generator.

The failure to provide electricity during the extreme summer temperatures is yet another recurrent complaint of protesters. At the start of July, this problem was exacerbated further when Iran cut off its electricity supply to Iraq. The ensuing shortfall left many Iraqis with only a few hours or unreliable electricity supply a day.

 

Iraqi protesters storm Iranian consulate

Protesters storm the Iranian consulate and set fire to the outer perimeter of the compound, shouting condemnation of Iranian influence over Iraq’s political parties. Hundreds of Iraqi protesters torched the Iranian consulate in the southern city of Basra on Friday as fresh demonstrations erupted over poor infrastructure and lack of jobs. The latest unrest follows several days of violence in which at least 10 people were killed, mostly in clashes with security forces. During this week’s unrest, angry locals set fire to government buildings and targeted the offices of Shiite militias and political parties. Many Basra residents blame government mismanagement and corruption for collapsing public services, including the recent hospitalization of thousands of people who drank contaminated water. The country’s parliament has called an emergency meeting with lawmakers and ministers on Saturday to discuss the crisis.

Protesters outside Iran’s consulate on Friday burned an Iranian flag and chanted “Iran, out!” as they stormed the building. Many blame Iranian-backed parties for interfering in Iraqi politics, and thereby playing a role in the deterioration of public services. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi called it a “savage attack,” while Iraq’s foreign ministry said it was “an unacceptable act undermining the interests of Iraq and its international relations.”

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, under pressure to calm the situation, has promised to release funds allocated to fixing Basra’s public services. The turmoil comes at a sensitive time for the country. Lawmakers are struggling to form a new government following inconclusive elections in May, with two blocs claiming to have won the most seats. Abadi is hoping to keep his job in the next government by forming an alliance with populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has called for Iraq to have greater political independence from both neighboring Iran and the United States.